Altcoin Tier 2 price analysis – Factom back again

This week Factom (FTC) and Monero (XMR) exchanged roles: FTC increased and XMR decreased.

Summary: Factom (FCT) rose 23.4%, the currency that performed best this week

The Dash rate rose by 11.2%, taking second place among the currencies considered. The Monero rate has dropped by 15.5% and thus again the loser of the week. Well – everything has to pass by or at least take a break. Accordingly, XMR’s high price has come to an (hopefully provisional!) end this week. Factom proves that this end can be provisional, and its price rose by more than 20% this week. Dash is in second place with a rise of 11.2%. XMR is in last place this week and lost another 15.5% compared to last week.

Monero fell this week. After testing the EMA200 twice, it was breached downwards. Since then, although A, September 13, was undertaken by the bulls a courageous attempt to break through the EMA200 again with the rise, an attempt but it failed. Since then, the course is beyond the EMA100 which fell on September 12 under the EMA200.

The MACD (second panel from above) is negative again since today, furthermore the MACD line (blue) has fallen below the signal (orange), which is also a bearish sign. Overall, it looks more bearish for Monero in the short term.

This picture is confirmed by the RSI (third panel from above), which is completely bearish.

The Accumulation/Distribution-Chart (last panel) has been falling since September 11th. There has been a slight increase since September 13th, but just this afternoon the relationship between accumulation and distribution fell again.

What do we do with it?

Is that the end of Monero? I think it’s worth taking a look at the big picture here: On the 240min chart we can see that since September 12th the price has been testing the EMA100 that corresponds to the chart. Should this support break, the price would continue to fall, but would have another important support with the EMA200, which is currently at around 0.0135 BTC. Unfortunately it has to be said that MACD is negative, MACD line is slightly below signal and RSI is below 50 – all of which are not bullish signs. All this points to further price losses, we have to see how strong the EMA100 support is.

The Winner of the Week: Factom

The dead live longer: After Factom did so badly last week, the share price rose this week: On September 11th, after repeated tests, the EMA100 and EMA200 were breached. This was followed on September 12th by a bullish crossing of the two EMAs. But of course not everything is rosy: The EMA100 was tested twice and was currently breached. It will have to be seen whether the EMA200 support will hold.

The MACD (second panel from above), after swinging above zero during the day, has now fallen slightly more into the negative: The MACD line (blue, dropped strongly and takes the signal (orange) with it. This speaks for a short-term negative correction.

This picture is confirmed by the RSI (third panel from above) this bearish picture: With 36 it is clearly in the bearish territory.

Finally, the Accumulation/Distribution-Chart (last panel) is stable since a strong rise between September 11th and 13th and shows neither a trend towards accumulation nor distribution.

The signs are therefore not super-positive overall. Important will be the behavior at the EMA200 support; should the price remain above that, nothing stands in the way of further price increases. But if you look at other time scales (i.e. a 240min chart and a 1D chart) the signs are not 100% convincing.

Disclaimer: The price estimates shown on this page are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are only an analyst’s opinion.

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